Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 25.352698 28.821257 32.554398 36.866655 41.706137 46.965178 53.108585
2024-12-15 20.085649 24.770683 30.196592 36.927525 45.035050 54.466773 66.250984
2024-12-22 17.184789 22.333109 28.581965 36.692843 46.907246 59.306107 75.456352
2024-12-29 15.196999 20.683526 27.623013 36.993540 49.258918 64.703345 85.552202
2025-01-05 14.016267 19.848323 27.489538 38.160776 52.592920 71.335560 97.405905
2025-01-12 12.504548 18.379046 26.333931 37.796891 53.776683 75.128751 105.657213
2025-01-19 10.748126 16.373350 24.235475 35.908984 52.657845 75.649076 109.385271
2025-01-26 10.086480 15.856394 24.147324 36.783247 55.372462 81.492384 120.687034
2025-02-02 9.528318 15.428614 24.130138 37.719544 58.182892 87.565536 132.578650
2025-02-09 8.741046 14.573353 23.397657 37.513057 59.258635 91.148502 140.996058
2025-02-16 7.972343 13.674220 22.517841 36.995322 59.793443 93.910710 148.276856
2025-02-23 7.442475 13.109729 22.106112 37.155145 61.341818 98.222964 158.049363
2025-03-02 7.030648 12.717801 21.956979 37.747131 63.642718 103.868184 170.273718
2025-03-09 6.584595 12.229874 21.613869 37.995317 65.401059 108.755038 181.566723
2025-03-16 6.083412 11.598721 20.976959 37.694178 66.214324 112.143724 190.588306
2025-03-23 5.739925 11.216680 20.729700 38.022182 68.067380 117.263134 202.608070
2025-03-30 5.566253 11.127757 20.979524 39.213005 71.428368 124.985504 219.230367
2025-04-06 5.163865 10.577230 20.369218 38.841899 72.064343 128.190189 228.451149
2025-04-13 4.572536 9.614651 18.942634 36.904685 69.828049 126.410308 229.117403
2025-04-20 4.421689 9.499200 19.067038 37.801702 72.675548 133.449111 245.202807
2025-04-27 4.287838 9.405907 19.223838 38.762026 75.678007 140.878206 262.275568
2025-05-04 4.018102 9.012936 18.778546 38.550252 76.503304 144.493051 272.763100
2025-05-11 3.732534 8.562784 18.189234 38.019185 76.692132 146.960834 281.283944